CONTAINER shipping’s impressive recovery from last year’s market crash shows no sign of stalling, with the European Liner Affairs Association reporting growth of 20%-plus in Asia-Europe volumes for the first quarter, writes Janet Porter .
Although the year-on-year increase for dry and reefer cargoes in March of 10.5% was well down on February’s 52% advance, that difference reflected the unprecedented collapse in trade during the early weeks of 2009.
ELAA figures, compiled from member lines and rounded up to account for an estimated 100% of the market, show cargo flows remained healthy in the eastbound direction as well. First-quarter growth totalled almost 22% with liftings of 1.4m teu.
On the headhaul leg from Asia to Europe, container lines moved 3.1m teu of dry and reefer cargo in the first three months of 2010. March liftings of a little over 1m teu compared with just under 950,000 teu in February.
Freight rates also continued their rebound, with the ELAA’s price index for the Asia-Europe westbound trades rising to 116 in March from 114 in February. The base index of 100 is calculated on the 2008 quarterly average. A low of 48 was touched in March 2009 before rates embarked on their recovery. In the eastbound trades, the index moved up to 104 in March from 96 in April and last year’s weakest point of 60.
Meanwhile, Drewry reported that its weekly Hong Kong-Los Angeles container rate benchmark had jumped 10.8% in the latest seven-day period to stand at $2,189 per loaded 40 ft container. That represents an increase of almost 113% in spot rates since May 2010.
Ocean carriers are also signalling that rate increases being agreed in annual service contracts now being concluded are roughly in line with what they were seeking. That would return the Pacific trade to breakeven after massive collective losses suffered in 2009.
Of the major east-west trade routes, only the Atlantic is still in poor shape, with the westbound Europe-North America price index standing at 72 in March, up fractionally from 71 a month earlier to show very little change over the year. Eastbound freight rates are in better shape, with the latest price index reaching 93 in March compared with the 2008 average of 100.
Clarksons expects demand to outpace supply growth in the container trades this year. Cellular fleet capacity is forecast to rise by 6.1% in 2010, whereas the global box trades are on course to expand by 8.8%.
The more subdued fleet growth reflects the non-delivery of capacity that was scheduled for 2010. Ordering activity remains at a standstill, although some forecasters expect owners to return to the yards in early 2011